A new study from Juniper Research forecasts almost 20 million fully autonomous or self-driving vehicles on the road by 2025, with consumer adoption set to take off in 2021. These driverless cars will, however, represent only 1% of all vehicles...
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A new study from Juniper Research forecasts almost 20 million fully autonomous or self-driving vehicles on the road by 2025, with consumer adoption set to take off in 2021. These driverless cars will, however, represent only 1% of all vehicles on the roads.
Driven by increased safety and convenience for drivers, development has progressed to live trials with North America and West Europe set to become the first to witness driverless cars in use on the road.
The research found that in the interim, consumer usage of ADAS (Advanced Driving Assistance System) technologies such as adaptive cruise control and automated braking will become key. It argued that these systems will serve to prepare drivers for the psychological change from the role of driving a car to operating a driverless car.
How to Monetise Driverless Cars?
The new research, Autonomous Vehicles: Adoption, Regulation & Business Models 2015-2025, finds that although the market has progressed to live trials, a discernible monetisation strategy has not become evident. Stakeholders are currently investigating multiple business models with manufacturers expected to engage in product licensing, self-production or open sourcing the systems.
Top 5 Players Driving the Market
Juniper Research ranked the top 5 most promising players in the driverless car sector. They were scored on a number of key factors such as: live trials; miles tested on road; technology development; project scale and scope; future potential and market opportunities. The rankings were: Google, Volvo, Daimler, Tesla and Apple. Google was ranked as the most promising player, having been in development the longest and having logged the highest amount of autonomous miles on public roads.
Dealing with Dilemmas
The research noted that concerns over the decision making capabilities of these systems have been raised and questions have been asked about the decisions autonomous vehicles would take when presented with the Trolley Problem, where the autonomous car will be forced to choose between two disastrous outcomes.
The Juniper study argued that the siloed nature of technology development requires stakeholders to collaborate and ensure a minimum level of safety for those in the hands of autonomous driving systems.
The report forms part of Juniper’s ongoing analysis of Connected Cars & Telematics.
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Technology analysts Juniper Research are forecasting that in revenue terms the telematics sector will continue to outperform all other M2M markets over the next five years, with one in five passenger vehicles connected globally by 2019. Connected...
Technology analysts Juniper Research are forecasting that in revenue terms the telematics sector will continue to outperform all other M2M markets over the next five years, with one in five passenger vehicles connected globally by 2019. Connected cars will represent 20% of the global car market by 2019, the company predicts.
Smartphone-based models have become the key disruptor for M2M, as sectors such as healthcare, consumer electronics and retail continue to evolve. Juniper Research forecasts that the M2M sector will generate service revenues of over $40 billion globally by 2019 - doubling the size of today’s market.
Smart metering to see global growth
The new research, M2M & Embedded Devices: Strategic Analysis & Vertical Market Forecasts 2015-2019, observed that the roll-out of smart metering initiatives will see rapid up-take over the next six years, driven in part by governments’ ambitions to increase efficiency.
The utility sector, however, is not expected to generate similar revenues to that of the connected automotive sector.
The utility sector however is not expected to generate similar revenues to that of the connected automotive sector.
Mergers, acquisitions, new applications
Agriculture and environmental applications are starting to emerge as important new sectors in the M2M market, with applications as diverse as wild-life and farm animal monitoring, and increasing productivity through precise field mapping. Some of the industry’s most powerful players are coming together, such as the merger of KORE Telematics and Raco Wireless, and the acquisition by Huawei of the M2M technology start-up Neul.
Other key findings include:
- The US remains the leading geographical region for M2M, ahead of Western Europe. China is becoming increasingly important as initiatives by the country’s major carriers begin to take shape.
- Implementation of Big Data analytics will play an increasingly important role, particularly in areas such as telematics, smart metering and healthcare.
Key questions, says Juniper are:
- Which market verticals hold the greatest promise in terms of service and connectivity enablement revenues?
- What are the prospects for cellular-based M2M modules?
- How are smartphones and Big Data playing a role in the M2M universe, and how will these devices and technologies affect the M2M market moving forward?
- How is the API landscape developing and what role does it play?
- How will the IoT and the M2M universe interrelate with one another?